Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.2%
Tondela
35.5%
Draw
35.3%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
0.81
Tondela
vs
0.93
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS34.7%
Over 0.581.4%
Over 1.553.0%
Over 2.525.4%
Over 3.59.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
18.6%
0-1
15.2%
1-1
14.3%
1-0
13.3%
0-2
7.5%
1-2
6.1%
2-0
5.8%
2-1
5.4%
2-2
2.5%
0-3
2.3%
1-3
1.9%
3-0
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).