Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.4%
Spal
30.8%
Draw
29.8%
Trapani
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25
Spal
vs
1.05
Trapani
Markets
BTTS47.7%
Over 0.588.7%
Over 1.568.3%
Over 2.540.4%
Over 3.520.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.3%
1-0
11.2%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
4.3%
3-1
3.4%
3-0
3.2%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).