Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.9%
Chelsea
23.4%
Draw
17.8%
Leeds
Expected Goals (xG)
2.08
Chelsea
vs
1.08
Leeds
Markets
BTTS59.2%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.583.7%
Over 2.561.2%
Over 3.538.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.1%
1-0
7.5%
3-1
6.9%
3-0
6.3%
0-0
5.6%
2-2
5.4%
1-2
5.2%
3-2
3.7%
4-1
3.6%
4-0
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).