Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.6%
Luton
31.7%
Draw
37.7%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
0.99
Luton
vs
1.12
Stoke
Markets
BTTS43.3%
Over 0.586.9%
Over 1.563.3%
Over 2.535.3%
Over 3.516.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.4%
0-0
13.1%
0-1
12.6%
1-0
11.0%
0-2
7.7%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
6.6%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
3.7%
0-3
2.9%
1-3
2.8%
3-1
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).