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11 Jan 2025 · 15:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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34.2%
Albacete
24.4%
Draw
41.4%
Santander

Expected Goals (xG)

1.38

Albacete

vs
1.54

Santander

Markets

BTTS58.7%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.578.8%
Over 2.555.9%
Over 3.533.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.3%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
7.9%
1-0
7.5%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
5.3%
2-0
5.1%
1-3
4.5%
3-1
3.6%
0-3
3.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).