Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →6.7%
Belenenses
16.0%
Draw
77.3%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.44
Belenenses
vs
2.13
Benfica
Markets
BTTS31.2%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.572.5%
Over 2.547.6%
Over 3.525.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
17.3%
0-1
16.5%
0-3
12.3%
1-2
7.7%
0-0
7.3%
1-1
6.9%
0-4
6.6%
1-3
5.5%
1-0
3.7%
1-4
2.9%
0-5
2.8%
2-2
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).