Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →11.3%
Nacional
21.0%
Draw
67.6%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.70
Nacional
vs
2.01
Benfica
Markets
BTTS43.9%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.550.7%
Over 3.528.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.5%
0-1
12.9%
1-1
9.9%
1-2
9.4%
0-3
9.0%
0-0
7.3%
1-3
6.3%
0-4
4.5%
1-0
4.1%
2-2
3.3%
2-1
3.3%
1-4
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).