Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →74.4%
Liverpool
14.9%
Draw
10.7%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
3.13
Liverpool
vs
1.22
Luton
Markets
BTTS67.9%
Over 0.598.0%
Over 1.593.7%
Over 2.580.8%
Over 3.563.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1
8.1%
2-1
7.7%
3-0
6.6%
2-0
6.4%
4-1
6.3%
1-1
5.6%
4-0
5.2%
3-2
4.9%
2-2
4.7%
5-1
3.9%
4-2
3.8%
1-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).