Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.2%
Castellon
18.6%
Draw
15.2%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
2.27
Castellon
vs
0.99
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS56.2%
Over 0.596.2%
Over 1.583.5%
Over 2.563.1%
Over 3.541.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
8.8%
1-1
8.6%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
7.4%
2-2
4.8%
1-2
4.3%
4-0
4.2%
4-1
4.2%
0-1
3.9%
0-0
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).