Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.0%
Ponferradina
27.5%
Draw
16.5%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.39
Ponferradina
vs
0.61
Lugo
Markets
BTTS34.2%
Over 0.586.6%
Over 1.559.3%
Over 2.532.3%
Over 3.514.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.9%
0-0
13.4%
2-0
13.0%
1-1
11.4%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
8.0%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
3.7%
1-2
3.5%
0-2
2.5%
2-2
2.4%
4-0
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).