Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →8.7%
Southampton
20.0%
Draw
71.3%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
0.66
Southampton
vs
2.19
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS44.2%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.578.9%
Over 2.554.3%
Over 3.532.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.8%
0-1
11.5%
0-3
10.1%
1-1
9.5%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
6.9%
1-3
6.7%
0-4
5.5%
1-4
3.7%
2-2
3.0%
2-1
2.8%
1-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).