Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.8%
Burnley
22.5%
Draw
28.8%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.21
Burnley
vs
1.69
Luton
Markets
BTTS73.7%
Over 0.596.9%
Over 1.591.2%
Over 2.574.8%
Over 3.554.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
7.1%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
5.2%
2-0
4.9%
2-3
4.0%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
3.6%
1-0
3.4%
4-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).