Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.0%
Porto
32.4%
Draw
24.5%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Porto
vs
0.81
Benfica
Markets
BTTS39.2%
Over 0.585.1%
Over 1.559.7%
Over 2.531.7%
Over 3.513.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.1%
0-0
14.9%
1-1
14.1%
0-1
10.2%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
5.3%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.6%
2-2
3.1%
3-1
3.0%
1-3
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).