Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.2%
Notts County
24.9%
Draw
32.0%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Notts County
vs
1.21
Swindon
Markets
BTTS53.2%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.573.9%
Over 2.549.6%
Over 3.527.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.8%
1-0
10.6%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.4%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.4%
0-2
5.1%
3-1
4.3%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).