Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →81.9%
Liverpool
13.1%
Draw
4.9%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
2.87
Liverpool
vs
0.65
Watford
Markets
BTTS45.7%
Over 0.596.3%
Over 1.587.4%
Over 2.568.3%
Over 3.546.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.2%
3-0
11.7%
4-0
8.4%
2-1
7.9%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
7.6%
1-1
6.3%
4-1
5.4%
5-0
4.8%
0-0
3.7%
5-1
3.1%
2-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).