Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.4%
Portimonense
21.6%
Draw
37.0%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.77
Portimonense
vs
1.67
Arouca
Markets
BTTS67.0%
Over 0.597.2%
Over 1.585.4%
Over 2.566.9%
Over 3.545.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.0%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
7.0%
1-0
6.1%
0-1
5.7%
2-0
5.0%
3-1
5.0%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
4.4%
3-2
4.1%
2-3
3.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).