Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →8.9%
Casa Pia
18.3%
Draw
72.8%
Porto
Expected Goals (xG)
0.51
Casa Pia
vs
1.98
Porto
Markets
BTTS34.2%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.570.8%
Over 2.545.5%
Over 3.524.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.7%
0-2
16.2%
0-3
10.7%
1-2
8.3%
1-1
8.0%
0-0
7.9%
1-3
5.5%
0-4
5.3%
1-0
4.6%
1-4
2.7%
2-1
2.1%
2-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).