Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.7%
Swindon
25.0%
Draw
34.3%
Notts County
Expected Goals (xG)
1.39
Swindon
vs
1.26
Notts County
Markets
BTTS53.3%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.573.7%
Over 2.549.4%
Over 3.527.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.9%
1-0
10.3%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.9%
0-0
6.6%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
5.4%
3-1
4.0%
1-3
3.3%
3-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).