Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.4%
Vallecano
27.2%
Draw
21.4%
Zaragoza
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
Vallecano
vs
0.79
Zaragoza
Markets
BTTS41.0%
Over 0.588.9%
Over 1.564.1%
Over 2.537.4%
Over 3.517.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.8%
1-1
12.3%
0-0
11.1%
2-0
10.9%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.7%
3-0
5.1%
1-2
4.9%
3-1
4.0%
0-2
3.5%
2-2
3.4%
4-0
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).