Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.2%
Spal
28.9%
Draw
45.8%
Parma
Expected Goals (xG)
1.02
Spal
vs
1.45
Parma
Markets
BTTS50.0%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.571.7%
Over 2.544.7%
Over 3.523.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.8%
0-1
11.1%
0-0
9.8%
1-2
9.1%
0-2
8.9%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
6.4%
2-2
4.6%
2-0
4.4%
1-3
4.4%
0-3
4.3%
2-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).