Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.3%
Arsenal
26.3%
Draw
10.4%
Sunderland
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Arsenal
vs
0.54
Sunderland
Markets
BTTS35.2%
Over 0.587.5%
Over 1.565.9%
Over 2.537.7%
Over 3.518.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.0%
2-0
15.2%
0-0
12.5%
1-1
11.3%
3-0
8.4%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
4.6%
3-1
4.6%
4-0
3.5%
1-2
2.7%
2-2
2.2%
4-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).