Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →76.9%
Chesterfield
14.4%
Draw
8.7%
Dover Athletic
Expected Goals (xG)
2.91
Chesterfield
vs
0.94
Dover Athletic
Markets
BTTS58.1%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.590.1%
Over 2.573.8%
Over 3.553.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
9.0%
3-0
8.7%
2-1
8.5%
3-1
8.2%
4-0
6.3%
1-1
6.3%
4-1
6.0%
1-0
5.7%
2-2
4.0%
3-2
3.9%
5-0
3.7%
5-1
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).