Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.1%
Arouca
28.8%
Draw
31.1%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Arouca
vs
1.13
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS50.3%
Over 0.590.5%
Over 1.570.9%
Over 2.544.2%
Over 3.523.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
9.5%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
4.8%
3-1
3.7%
3-0
3.3%
1-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).