⚽ FootballData
1 – 3
AHT: 11CSV

19 Aug 2023 · 18:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
13.3%
Almeria
17.7%
Draw
69.0%
Real Madrid

Expected Goals (xG)

1.01

Almeria

vs
2.47

Real Madrid

Markets

BTTS58.5%
Over 0.596.7%
Over 1.586.5%
Over 2.567.6%
Over 3.545.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-2
9.5%
0-2
9.4%
1-1
8.0%
1-3
7.8%
0-3
7.7%
0-1
7.3%
1-4
4.8%
2-2
4.8%
0-4
4.8%
2-3
3.9%
2-1
3.9%
0-0
3.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).