Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →73.8%
Ath Madrid
17.9%
Draw
8.3%
Las Palmas
Expected Goals (xG)
2.14
Ath Madrid
vs
0.56
Las Palmas
Markets
BTTS38.2%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.575.4%
Over 2.550.8%
Over 3.528.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.3%
1-0
14.1%
3-0
10.9%
2-1
8.6%
1-1
8.3%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.2%
4-0
5.8%
0-1
3.6%
4-1
3.3%
5-0
2.5%
2-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).