Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.5%
Thame
22.0%
Draw
30.5%
Bury
Expected Goals (xG)
1.84
Thame
vs
1.44
Bury
Markets
BTTS63.9%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.583.6%
Over 2.563.7%
Over 3.541.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.6%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
7.2%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.4%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.6%
3-2
4.1%
3-0
3.9%
0-2
3.9%
0-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).