Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.2%
Sheffield United
27.4%
Draw
27.4%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Sheffield United
vs
1.15
Derby
Markets
BTTS54.5%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.575.8%
Over 2.550.2%
Over 3.528.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.2%
2-0
8.1%
0-0
7.9%
1-2
6.9%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
5.3%
3-1
4.7%
0-2
4.5%
3-0
4.1%
3-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).