Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.7%
Castellon
26.2%
Draw
24.1%
Burgos
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Castellon
vs
0.93
Burgos
Markets
BTTS46.6%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.569.0%
Over 2.543.0%
Over 3.522.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.4%
1-1
12.3%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
8.6%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.8%
3-1
4.5%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).