Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.7%
Man United
26.6%
Draw
42.8%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Man United
vs
1.69
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS63.2%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.583.1%
Over 2.559.9%
Over 3.537.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
1-3
5.1%
1-0
4.9%
2-0
4.5%
0-3
3.6%
2-3
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).