Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →82.4%
Lille
13.0%
Draw
4.6%
Ajaccio
Expected Goals (xG)
2.42
Lille
vs
0.40
Ajaccio
Markets
BTTS29.8%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.577.0%
Over 2.553.4%
Over 3.531.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.5%
1-0
14.6%
3-0
14.1%
4-0
8.5%
2-1
7.0%
0-0
5.8%
1-1
5.6%
3-1
5.6%
5-0
4.1%
4-1
3.4%
0-1
2.5%
5-1
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).