Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.5%
Almeria
19.5%
Draw
17.1%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
2.18
Almeria
vs
1.04
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS57.3%
Over 0.596.1%
Over 1.583.1%
Over 2.562.5%
Over 3.540.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.5%
1-1
8.9%
1-0
8.8%
3-1
7.2%
3-0
6.9%
2-2
5.1%
1-2
4.7%
0-1
4.2%
4-1
3.9%
0-0
3.9%
4-0
3.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).