Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.0%
Moreirense
31.7%
Draw
28.3%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14
Moreirense
vs
0.92
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS41.7%
Over 0.586.4%
Over 1.561.8%
Over 2.533.9%
Over 3.515.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.2%
1-0
13.8%
0-0
13.6%
0-1
10.9%
2-0
8.3%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
3.5%
3-0
3.2%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).