Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.3%
Perugia
28.0%
Draw
16.7%
Cittadella
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Perugia
vs
0.74
Cittadella
Markets
BTTS42.1%
Over 0.588.6%
Over 1.567.5%
Over 2.539.8%
Over 3.519.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.6%
1-1
12.8%
2-0
12.2%
0-0
11.4%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
6.4%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
4.6%
1-2
4.3%
2-2
3.3%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).