Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.5%
Spal
31.3%
Draw
28.2%
Lecce
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06
Spal
vs
0.83
Lecce
Markets
BTTS36.4%
Over 0.585.0%
Over 1.555.9%
Over 2.529.1%
Over 3.512.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.3%
0-0
15.0%
1-1
13.1%
0-1
12.8%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
5.5%
0-2
5.2%
3-0
3.0%
2-2
2.9%
3-1
2.5%
1-3
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).