Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.9%
Arouca
28.0%
Draw
24.1%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Arouca
vs
0.96
Farense
Markets
BTTS48.2%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.570.3%
Over 2.543.5%
Over 3.522.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
1-0
12.2%
0-0
9.7%
2-0
9.5%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.6%
3-1
4.4%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
4.1%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).