Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.3%
Exeter
20.3%
Draw
14.5%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Exeter
vs
0.70
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.592.8%
Over 1.570.8%
Over 2.546.1%
Over 3.524.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.5%
2-0
13.4%
1-1
9.4%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
8.2%
0-0
7.2%
0-1
6.4%
3-1
5.7%
4-0
3.7%
1-2
3.5%
2-2
3.2%
4-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).