Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.2%
Chelsea
29.3%
Draw
42.6%
Arsenal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Chelsea
vs
1.47
Arsenal
Markets
BTTS54.5%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.575.5%
Over 2.548.8%
Over 3.527.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
1-2
9.0%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
5.2%
2-0
4.9%
1-3
4.4%
0-3
3.8%
3-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).