Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.8%
Belenenses
25.9%
Draw
40.2%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Belenenses
vs
1.31
Arouca
Markets
BTTS49.9%
Over 0.592.2%
Over 1.570.4%
Over 2.545.2%
Over 3.523.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
0-1
11.5%
1-0
10.4%
1-2
8.4%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
5.8%
2-2
4.9%
1-3
3.7%
0-3
3.1%
3-1
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).