Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.5%
Spal
28.1%
Draw
20.3%
Bari
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Spal
vs
0.88
Bari
Markets
BTTS47.1%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.570.7%
Over 2.543.4%
Over 3.522.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
1-0
12.5%
2-0
10.5%
0-0
10.1%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
5.3%
3-1
4.7%
2-2
4.1%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).