Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.0%
Vitória Guimarães
24.5%
Draw
25.5%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Vitória Guimarães
vs
1.26
Arouca
Markets
BTTS61.0%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.582.2%
Over 2.559.7%
Over 3.537.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.6%
1-0
7.5%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.0%
3-1
5.9%
0-0
5.4%
0-1
4.9%
3-0
4.7%
3-2
3.7%
0-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).