Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →72.7%
Derby
17.6%
Draw
9.7%
Cambridge
Expected Goals (xG)
2.00
Derby
vs
0.54
Cambridge
Markets
BTTS35.6%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.571.5%
Over 2.546.8%
Over 3.525.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.4%
2-0
15.7%
3-0
10.5%
2-1
8.5%
1-1
7.8%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
5.7%
4-0
5.2%
0-1
5.0%
4-1
2.9%
2-2
2.3%
1-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).