Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.7%
Tondela
30.0%
Draw
28.3%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09
Tondela
vs
0.84
Chaves
Markets
BTTS37.0%
Over 0.586.0%
Over 1.556.8%
Over 2.530.3%
Over 3.513.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.5%
0-0
14.0%
0-1
12.8%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
8.7%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
5.1%
3-0
3.1%
2-2
3.0%
3-1
2.6%
1-3
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).