Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.6%
Stoke
28.5%
Draw
40.0%
Southampton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Stoke
vs
1.38
Southampton
Markets
BTTS53.4%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.574.0%
Over 2.547.7%
Over 3.526.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.4%
1-2
8.7%
0-0
8.6%
1-0
8.0%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
5.5%
2-2
5.2%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).