Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.4%
Gillingham
25.3%
Draw
41.2%
Chesterfield
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Gillingham
vs
1.38
Chesterfield
Markets
BTTS52.1%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.572.6%
Over 2.548.0%
Over 3.526.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
0-1
10.8%
1-0
9.6%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.1%
0-0
7.0%
2-0
5.5%
2-2
5.2%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).