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11 Apr 2025 · 19:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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55.8%
Gil Vicente
25.5%
Draw
18.7%
Vitória Guimarães

Expected Goals (xG)

1.72

Gil Vicente

vs
0.90

Vitória Guimarães

Markets

BTTS49.6%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.574.5%
Over 2.548.7%
Over 3.526.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.2%
1-0
11.6%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.2%
3-0
6.2%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
5.1%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.0%
4-0
2.7%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).