Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.6%
Man United
27.4%
Draw
30.0%
Brighton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.61
Man United
vs
1.33
Brighton
Markets
BTTS60.4%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.580.7%
Over 2.556.3%
Over 3.533.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.5%
1-0
7.0%
2-0
6.9%
0-0
6.9%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
4.9%
0-2
4.7%
3-0
3.7%
1-3
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).