Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.6%
Northampton
26.9%
Draw
30.5%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.28
Northampton
vs
1.03
Swindon
Markets
BTTS45.8%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.566.5%
Over 2.540.6%
Over 3.520.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.3%
1-1
12.5%
0-1
10.8%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
8.1%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.3%
2-2
4.3%
3-1
3.6%
3-0
3.5%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).