Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →69.0%
Gil Vicente
18.7%
Draw
12.2%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
2.04
Gil Vicente
vs
0.71
Estrela
Markets
BTTS43.8%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.551.9%
Over 3.529.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.4%
2-0
13.3%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
9.1%
1-1
8.8%
3-1
6.4%
0-0
6.0%
0-1
4.9%
4-0
4.6%
2-2
3.3%
4-1
3.3%
1-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).