Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →13.9%
Burton
21.0%
Draw
65.1%
Birmingham
Expected Goals (xG)
0.64
Burton
vs
1.75
Birmingham
Markets
BTTS38.0%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.542.6%
Over 3.521.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.0%
0-2
14.1%
1-1
9.4%
1-2
9.0%
0-0
8.4%
0-3
8.2%
1-0
6.7%
1-3
5.2%
0-4
3.6%
2-1
3.3%
2-2
2.9%
1-4
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).