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20 Apr 2024 · 12:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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55.6%
Altrincham
24.8%
Draw
19.6%
Oxford City

Expected Goals (xG)

1.81

Altrincham

vs
0.99

Oxford City

Markets

BTTS53.5%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.577.8%
Over 2.553.0%
Over 3.530.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.8%
1-0
10.1%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
7.0%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
5.4%
0-1
5.1%
2-2
4.9%
0-2
3.0%
3-2
2.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).